Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.224600 4.962041 5.778102 6.746448 7.862398 9.106314 10.596101
2025-08-31 2.980880 3.937934 5.113152 6.654639 8.614638 11.014135 14.163766
2025-09-07 2.351000 3.426804 4.866781 6.916535 9.737091 13.456146 18.700247
2025-09-14 1.863822 2.960214 4.541423 6.955216 10.505687 15.485899 22.935457
2025-09-21 1.515413 2.598520 4.267272 6.975641 11.196308 17.439101 27.257863
2025-09-28 1.255277 2.308453 4.031277 6.985543 11.832087 19.343652 31.687987
2025-10-05 1.163841 2.272533 4.181077 7.609398 13.480751 22.940886 39.060745
2025-10-12 1.027315 2.127087 4.116532 7.853988 14.523850 25.674806 45.337681
2025-10-19 0.915083 2.002480 4.063209 8.099600 15.582516 28.524431 52.070689
2025-10-26 0.795793 1.839161 3.908815 8.131026 16.252340 30.764414 57.970234
2025-11-02 0.667078 1.629603 3.628993 7.877783 16.355980 32.003591 62.217234
2025-11-09 0.548180 1.416087 3.304131 7.482540 16.128449 32.600499 65.337385
2025-11-16 0.469331 1.280175 3.124713 7.369347 16.462158 34.316234 70.781494
2025-11-23 0.405416 1.166707 2.976022 7.300821 16.881294 36.246791 76.846275
2025-11-30 0.373859 1.128275 2.991866 7.597336 18.102313 39.878044 86.573401
2025-12-07 0.331759 1.052210 2.904801 7.643499 18.782191 42.474077 94.461452
2025-12-14 0.294228 0.980058 2.814507 7.667181 19.411482 45.021006 102.475260
2025-12-21 0.261149 0.912953 2.725088 7.678477 20.010710 47.556528 110.686629
2025-12-28 0.259361 0.940818 2.891910 8.359119 22.264005 53.888001 127.530101
2026-01-04 0.240957 0.911960 2.898827 8.625867 23.548241 58.185448 140.307732
2026-01-11 0.224240 0.884761 2.905841 8.893633 24.864718 62.671688 153.871041
2026-01-18 0.201834 0.832626 2.831391 8.927895 25.595360 65.874214 164.811563
2026-01-25 0.173489 0.751799 2.656009 8.651844 25.490382 67.103861 171.338704